Donald Trump and his supporters are fond of saying that he is still in the race because he could outperform the polls to win, as Brexit did in the U.K. In fact, polls were the one indicator that had Brexit right in the lead up to the referendum, and nothing about Trump’s poll numbers indicate that he could draw that kind of support.

There was a sense that Remain was greatly favored to win the referendum vote, but that came from elite opinion and betting markets. Polls showed a tight race, however — with Leave winning most of the time. So-called experts who thought Remain was a given were out of touch with British citizens outside London, but they were also out of touch with the polls.

Financial Times tallied the poll numbers leading up to Brexit, and of the 30 taken nearest to the vote, Leave won 16 and Remain 14. The BBC also analyzed polls and said on June 18 that the “result is in the balance” and on June 22 (the day before the vote) that there was “no consistent picture.”

The voters who brought about the Brexit result were not an invisible majority that surged on Election Day; they were seen in the steadily rising and eventually leading poll numbers. Trump’s numbers, on the other hand, have been sliding downward. It may be flattering to look at this flailing campaign as somehow reminiscent of the British throwing of the yoke of the EU, but an examination of polls reveals no such similarity.