With all the attention focussed on the French referendum on the draft EU ‘constitution’ (May 29th – still too close to call, but with the odds probably favouring a yes), the Dutch vote (June 1) is being overlooked. It shouldn’t be. Here are two comments from a knowledgeable Dutchman.

The first dates from yesterday: “all internet polls routinely show comfortable majorities in the Tegen-camp [the noes], usually around 60%. Again today [Wednesday] a “panel” of 16,000 people for one of our newsshows came out with 60%opposed, in favor 21%, don’t know 19%. 67% said that they were definitely going to vote. This sounds too high, however, and may indicate that the panel members weren’t representative of the population.”

The second is from today: “Good news–the only poll which, until now, showed a fairly clear lead for the yes-camp –not entirely surprisingly this is the government poll!– has now also showed a considerable tightening: 40% No, 38% Yes, this compares with 30% No and 52% Yes in April. According to the government, this poll polls a group of voters who say they are definitely going to vote and are fairly well-informed. As such, the government claims this is the most accurate forecast available.”

Nee’s the way.