The news of a drone attack on Rublyovka, an upscale part of the Moscow suburbs, has provoked a now predictable response from Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner mercenary group.
[Prigozhin’s] called on officials from the Russian Defense Ministry to “tear the s**t out of their offices.”
He went on: “You stinking scum, what are you doing? You cattle! Get your asses to the Department of Defense. You haven’t done a f**king thing to step up. Why the f**k are you allowing these drones to fly into Moscow?
But the fact that the drones hit Rublyovka (which has clearly gone up in the world since I stayed in that neighborhood two or three times in the early 1990s) is in line with the class-warrior camouflage Prigozhin has been wearing of late.
And sure enough:
At the same time, Prigozhin appears to be fine with drones flying over the Rublyovka suburb, the most elite district of Moscow very near President Vladimir Putin’s Novo-Ogaryovo residence.
“The fact that they fly into Rublyovka to your home – the hell with it, let your houses go up in flames,” he said.
“But what are ordinary people to do when drones carrying explosives crash into their windows.”
What Prigozhin went on to say is not suitable for a family-friendly website (click on the Kyiv Post’s website for details!), but is in line with the hard-man persona that this ex-con likes to project.
To the writer at the Kyiv Post, the attack (which did little damage) was a “major embarrassment” to the Kremlin, which has spent the last year or so assuring Russians that the war won’t come home (other, presumably, in the form of killed or wounded soldiers).
Inevitably, there is speculation over the source of the drones. They reportedly came from the southwest, which would be consistent with a Ukrainian launch, but which would not, of course, exclude a launch from Russia, which has plenty of territory to Moscow’s southwest. An aide to Ukraine’s President Zelensky has said that while Kyiv was “pleased to watch” the attacks, it had nothing to do with them.
With the Ukrainian capital coming under increased drone attack of late, now might be a moment to demonstrate that Ukraine can strike back. Then again, Kyiv might prefer to let the drones be their own message, while issuing a denial to satisfy allies worried about any extension of the war into Russia.
Who knows?
Writing in The Spectator, Lisa Haseldine takes up the story:
Just three weeks ago we saw the Kremlin itself targeted by unarmed drones. With anticipation for Ukraine’s expected counter-offensive building by the day, this attack raises questions over what is truly going on: is this revenge by Kyiv for the intensified air attacks inflicted on the country by Moscow in recent weeks? Or is this part of some false flag attack by Russia, motivated by the Kremlin’s need to continue galvanising domestic support for a war they are floundering in?
A false flag attack by the Kremlin on its own capital city could be justified in being needed to raise some blitz spirit in Moscow: a sense of unity with regard to the war. But it would be a risky strategy that can backfire. While it plays into Putin’s continued narrative of Russian victimhood in this conflict, whether genuine or set-up, this second high profile drone attack on Moscow is at best embarrassing for the authorities as it implies the city’s defences are demonstrably porous and its people (especially in the wealthy areas) sitting ducks.
However:
The Russian Ministry of Defence has issued a statement blaming Kyiv. Strikingly, though, while the Kremlin acknowledges the three drones that made it through their defences, the ministry has said that just eight drones were aimed at the capital. Evidence being compiled by the independent Russian media outlet Baza suggests the true figure is closer to 25, if not higher, which raises the question of whether the Kremlin is deliberately downplaying the scale of the threat.
If so, that argues against the false-flag idea. Probably.
And then there is Prigozhin’s latest intervention to ponder . . .