Central planners across the Western world — from the British Conservative Party to the Biden administration — are doing their best to force buyers of new cars to switch to electric vehicles (EVs). But what if consumers prefer to stick with “traditional” cars that are more closely tailored to their needs? Something tells me that, unless regulators get involved — spoiler, they probably will — the afterlife of the internal-combustion engine will last far longer than the planners would like, raising the prospect that, as has been the case in Cuba, another scene of central planning triumph, ancient cars will be driving around for a long, long time.
The cars on Britain’s roads are getting older and older as net zero plans leave drivers in a tizz about what new vehicles to buy.
About 5.3 million cars are 15 years old or older, according to figures from car marketplace Auto Trader, up from just 1.7m in 2001. The number is on track to rise to 9.3m by 2032.
Cars are ageing in part because of a squeeze on production, which started during the pandemic and is only now beginning to end. Manufacturing issues led to higher prices and prompted motorists to hold onto their vehicles for longer than they otherwise would.
However, many are still reluctant to trade in even as more models come onto the market.
Rising electricity prices and falling petrol prices have left many motorists hesitant to buy battery-powered vehicles.
Meanwhile, the looming ban on new petrol and diesel car sales from 2030 has left others wondering if purchasing another non-electric car is worth it either.
Note that last sentence. The math, such as it is, of the switch to EVs used to be that auto companies would, at least partly, pay for the capital investment needed to enable them to manufacture EVs on a sufficient scale with the profits made in their “legacy” business. That model probably hasn’t survived the new FDA regulations. The possible reluctance of would-be purchasers of conventional cars to stick with the ones they already have is an extra twist.
The Daily Telegraph:
For now, sales of EVs are being propped up by company car buyers and the wealthy, Mr Saker [motoring expert and emeritus professor at the University of Loughborough] said.
What happens when those buyers have satisfied their needs? Will average families really splash the extra cash for battery-powered cars, which cost about £10,000 more than petrol and diesel equivalents?
If they do not, expect even more rust buckets on Britain’s roads. Based on current trends, a record 15.4m cars will be over 10 years old by 2028, AutoTrader forecasts – 3.6m more than in 2021.
That would be a significant setback to the Government’s net zero goals. Almost a quarter of Britain’s greenhouse gases come from transport and more than half are from cars.
It would take a heart of stone not to laugh.
Also from the Daily Telegraph (complete with a picture of the great Arthur Daley: Brits will understand):
Despite the looming deadline [for the introduction of the ban on the sale of new combustion-engine cars], consumer reluctance could even be growing. Research by Forbes Advisor suggests that 62 per cent of people think the UK isn’t ready for a ban in 2030, and 42 per cent say the ban should be scrapped entirely. A recent AA survey suggests that the percentage of car owners considering an EV is dwindling slightly, falling from about a quarter to less than a fifth over the past few years. Data from Auto Trader reflects this; interest in new EVs has fallen by about two-thirds.
Two-thirds.
The writer of the article goes on to suggest that this is going to do some “very strange things” to market prices for autos. That’s right, I think. At the moment, prices (in Britain) for used conventional cars are very strong, but that’s still partly a result of post-Covid distortions. Nevertheless, even once those have worked their way through the system, I have a feeling that prices for secondhand climate-criminal cars will hold up much better than EV enthusiasts might expect.
Meanwhile:
The price of used EVs is dropping markedly. A lot of that has to do with the growing uneasiness about the expense and practicalities of EV ownership…
In addition to understandable gripes about purchase price and practicality, potential EV buyers are unclear about whether local third-party garages – which have served petrol and diesel motorists for many decades – are capable of providing the same service to electric drivers once their cars are out of warranty.
Aside from problems in manufacturing, there’s a looming crisis in the number of qualified vehicle service technicians, who are in an ageing and slightly unpopular profession that struggles to attract new entrants. That’s particularly true for electric vehicles, which require additional knowledge and training. The Institute of the Motor Industry (IMI) says that about 39,000 mechanics are now qualified to work on EVs, but that a shortfall of 16,000 is still predicted.
“Despite a long-held belief that EVs – with fewer moving parts – will be quicker to service than their ICE counterparts, in-depth analysis conducted by the IMI for our response to the MOT Consultation suggests otherwise,” says Steve Nash, CEO of the IMI.
Oh.