Efforts are being made to break away from our China dependence when it comes to EVs, but what happens before that happy moment?
I’m old enough to remember when one of the (secondary) arguments for decarbonization was that it would free the West of its reliance on OPEC+ and other unreliable energy suppliers. No matter that on this side of the Atlantic, the U.S. had, thanks to fracking, already established de facto energy independence. No matter either that Europe, had it so chosen, could have lessened its dependence on OPEC+ (which includes Russia), by, among other measures, expanding its use of nuclear power and developing additional oil and gas reserves.
Climate policy-makers (if they are realistic enough to include nuclear in their mix) argue that, in the end, renewables will achieve that much vaunted independence, although I do note that the Brits, “setting an example to the world” (as they fondly, if delusionally, imagine) with their reckless carefully thought-through climate policy, are working on a solar-power link with Morocco, a kingdom in famously stable North Africa. More broadly, there are ugly questions about increased vulnerability to unreliable suppliers before renewable nirvana is reached.
And then there are electric vehicles (EVs), the allegedly “clean cars” that are meant to accelerate the West’s move away from dependence on unreliable resource suppliers. It’s no secret that there are some question marks about that, primarily because of China’s domination of the EV supply chain, and certain metals being in, so to speak, the wrong place. Efforts are being made to break away from that dependence, but what happens before that happy moment?
Of late, there has been some good news about lithium, with big finds in Sweden and the U.S. (Julian Simon smiles), but it will be quite some time before those mines open (if given the normal environmentalist fracas), they ever do.
In the meantime, however, this was a comment worth noting (via Energy Monitor):
We are going to continue to remain dependent on China and I think the capital costs and economics are ultimately going to drive a lot of this,” Sarah Maryssael, the chief strategy officer of global lithium technology company Livent, said while talking about the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain at the FT Mining Summit in London on Friday.
“We’re seeing a lot of government incentives being poured into [reducing Chinese dependence]. But the development of a supply chain outside of China, is what the West lacks. China has a lot of very strong chemical engineering and refining capability. We have lost that in the West. We don’t build refineries and conversion capacities anymore, the way that we would once,” she added. . . .
China dominates each step in the production of a lithium-ion battery, a key component in EVs. EVs use six times more rare minerals than conventional cars because of their batteries. Currently, China, either by domestic mining or acquiring stakes in mining companies globally, controls 41% of the world’s cobalt and most of the mining of lithium. Approximately 67% of global lithium supply is processed by China, along with 73% of cobalt, 70% of graphite and 95% of manganese, all critical minerals for green technologies.
With its existing capacity for both refining and processing critical minerals, China has an edge over western countries now trying to wean themselves off the country.
“We have to make cars affordable and do this on a more cost competitive route,” Maryssael said. “[However] with China it is not just about cost but also about the know-how. Having the expertise is making China extremely competitive. And until we can attract more people into mining, chemical engineering and mechanical engineering, to build and operate refineries, I think we’re going to continue to struggle.”
Translation: This will take a long time.