Are we eleven congressmen and women away from defeating Obamacare in the House? That’s what CNN is reporting:

Washington (CNN) — Five more House Democrats said Tuesday that they will vote against Senate health care legislation, which puts opponents of reform just 11 votes shy of the 216 needed to prevent President Obama from scoring a major victory on his top domestic priority.
An ongoing CNN analysis shows that opposition in the House to the Senate health care plan has reached 205 members.
A total of 27 House Democrats, including nine who supported the House plan in November, have indicated that they would join a unified Republican caucus in opposing the Senate plan, which passed in that chamber December 24 with the minimum required 60 votes.

This clicks with the scuttlebutt passed along to me by Rep. David Dreier (R., Calif.) yesterday — that the Democrats were still ten votes away from 216 — but it also suggests that those ten votes are all still very much in play for both sides. Amazingly, the far-left Kucinich will be a key bellwether here (he announces his vote tomorrow), as will centrists like the coquettish Rep. Jason Altmire (D., Pa.), who has been flirting with — and feeling the wrath of — both sides. It might be a stretch to guarantee the pair will vote with the majority in either case, but I’ll say its very likely.

In the meantime, wavering Democrats might consider the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which finds that approval of the health-care bill barely higher than it was at this time last year (36 percent this year versus 33 percent in April of 2009) while disapproval has doubled over the same period (from 26 to 48 percent). And while Americans are split on the current bill versus the status quo (46/45), just 26 percent say the Senate should use reconciliation to pass it. One can only imagine what they’d think of “deeming.”

UPDATE: Reports have it that Kucinich will come out as a “yes” vote tomorrow (possibly in exchange for guarantees from President Obama that he will pursue a public option). This is what I expected, unfortunately.

On the other hand, Altmire has come out as saying that “deem and pass” is wrong.