As noted a few days ago, some close to the EFCA debate believe that the card check provision of the bill will be either diluted or eliminated entirely. There are rumblings that some Democratic senators are uneasy about dispensing with secret ballot elections, preventing EFCA supporters from reaching the 60 votes necessary for cloture.

As also noted previously, many maintain that it’s always been the strategy of EFCA proponents to compromise on either the card check component or the mandatory arbitration component in order to enhance passage of at least one of those provisions.

For most of the last two years the conventional wisdom among EFCA opponents had been that the compromise would be on mandatory arbitration. After all, why would unions yield on a provision (card check) that almost guarantees millions of new members and billions in additional union dues?

Since the November election, however, there’s been speculation that mandatory arbitration will make the final cut but card check will be amended (perhaps to include a higher certification threshold — e.g., 65% of employees must sign cards, instead of the 50% +1 threshold in the current draft; or, as mentioned yesterday, substituting ”quickie” elections for card check).

So why would liberal senators cave on card check? First, it’s tremendously unpopular. Second, “quickie” elections, while not a clear glide path toward unionization, would make organizing much easier than it is today.

Third, and perhaps most important, there are other bills pending that would, in combination, give unions much of what they would gain from card check. Among the bills is the RESPECT Act that would allow unions to organize millions of employees who are presently considered supervisors excluded from unionization ( Those same supervisors also are employers’ best advocates for remaining union-free). Further, by promulgating expansive “persuader” rules, EFCA supporters could effectively disarm employers trying to wage an election campaign.

Thus, the unpopular card check could be eliminated or revised without doing appreciable, if any, damage to labor’s ultimate goal.

Employers remain unalterably opposed to every provision of EFCA. Unions have not backed down either. Senators soon will find themselves between an immovable object and an irresistible force.