Warning: if you don’t like speculation, do no read this post. Take these numbers and facts as you will. They are what administration insiders are hearing, but they are based on guesses and impressions. First of all, the Iraqi election commission is saying turnout might have been as high as 72 percent. There is lots of caution about that number–”we’re not going there,” someone told me, who has heard the number but doesn’t know what to make of it. But that’s the scuttlebutt. Impressions on the ground are that turnout in Shia and Kurdish areas was high, as expected, and turnout in Sunni area low, as expected. U.S. military sources on the ground are estimating there were 50 attacks across Iraq. 8 were suicide bombings. None were inside polling stations, a sign they were effectively secured. The early estimate is that 10-20 Iraqis were killed and 50 wounded. Any attack is tragic, but this means the insurgency wasn’t able to radically increase its terrorism today. The Iraqi security forces are said to have performed pretty well. Some reports from specific cities: in Kirkuk there was not the sort of ethnic violence that was feared; in Mosul, the east non-Sunni side of the city turned out: the Sunni west side of Mosul did not turn out, but seems to have been better than in Ramadi and Fallajuh, where it was very, very low. Turnout among Sunnis in Baghdad appears to have been OK. All of this is subject to revision, and again, represents early impressions, but I thought I would pass along….