Andrew, it is always hard for me to disagree with anyone who expresses greater pessimism…but I just don’t see a Christian Democrat future here. … I certainly agree that there is/has long been a part of the Evangelical community that was socially conservative and economically populist. That subgroup was never particularly interested in small government on principle — just didn’t want their money transferred to things they didn’t like. They certainly don’t support policies such as social security reform, and other efforts to foster financial independence at the possible risk of security.

In the 80′s (when my views were cemented into place), we called Catholics with those politics “Reagan Democrats.” Now they are “swing voters.” To me this suggests a parallel route for security-seeking Evangelicals. They are more likely to vote Democrat — especially as the Democrats make efforts to court them, with guns and prayers — than to do what it takes to change fundamental GOP tenets. That takes tremendous commitment and organizing ability. Either way the GOP loses. But better to lose part of your base than your core principles. (Assuming that the principles can be presented freshly, demonstrated even, to attract more adherents later. Not a sure thing, alas.)

As for the 2006 losses — I don’t disagree with any of the reasons you posited, (specially the competence issue.) But I would argue that the total lack of fiscal discipline, the rampant spending and the way things were being financed are of a piece, and inseparable from the fact of spending way too much on welfare policies.