Three candidates continue to scramble for their colleagues’ votes for House Majority Leader.
1) Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) has been claiming for nearly two weeks that he already has the 116 votes [actually, 117] he needs to win on the first ballot, but on Capitol Hill almost no one believes this, neither friend nor foe. If Blunt really does have the votes he needs to become majority leader, why hasn’t he resigned from his whip position? Blunt is running what insiders call a “Rose Garden” campaign, refusing to debate his opponents or appear jointly with them on television.
2) Rep. John Boehner now claims roughly 90 supporters, and most people believe that his whip count is accurate. This makes Blunt’s number even more difficult to believe, unless the third candidate, John Shadegg (R-Ariz.), really has only about 20 supporters. The consensus view is that there will be a second ballot.
3) Rep. Mike Pence (R), the conservative head of the Republican Study Committee, had hoped to wait until his group’s upcoming retreat to wait on making an endorsement, but such a delay would have made the late endorsement ineffective. Unsurprisingly, Pence made his endorsement of former RSC chairman Shadegg, the most conservative congressman in the race. Pence’s endorsement, like Shadegg’s entry into the race, may have come too late, however.
4) Shadegg has had the conservative media on his side, and he got another boost with the endorsement of moderate Rep. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.). This confirms our prediction that some moderates would be attracted to the most conservative candidate, despite his ideology, just because of his commitment to reform. On the conservative side, Rep. Tom Feeney (R-Fla.) has abandoned his earlier public support for Blunt and will be backing Shadegg. The question at this point is how many congressmen will do the same.