In his 2010 State of the Union, President Obama pledged to double U.S. exports over the next five years. By early 2012, this seemed like a plausible goal. In January 2012, exports had climbed from January 2010’s $143 billion to $179 billion, about a 25 percent increase or a 12 percent annual growth rate. Even though the trade deficit also grew over that two-year period, this growth in exports caused some excitement among those concerned about the United States’ trade prospects. Tyler Cowen even wrote a cover story for the The American Interest celebrating the return of “export-oriented America.”

Many of Cowen’s points are still interesting and certain parts of the U.S. trade profile may inspire more hope (such as parts of the energy sector), but the past year casts some doubt on the aim of doubling exports by January 2015. Since January 2012, the export growth rate has slowed considerably. While exports may have grown at an average 12 percent annual growth rate between January 2010 and January 2012, they grew at only about a 4 percent rate between January 2012 and January 2013. Exports for April 2012 totaled $184 billion; exports for April 2013 were $187 billion. That’s about a 1.7 percent annual growth rate. Annual exports grew 15 percent between 2010 and 2011; they grew only 4.6 percent between 2011 and 2012. And adjusting for inflation would lower that growth rate even further.

Between January and April of 2010, exports reached about $584 billion. Between January and April of 2013, they totaled $746 billion (only a bit higher than the $732 billion over that same period in 2012). So three years into the president’s five-year target, exports have grown under 30 percent. In order for exports in January 2015 to be twice what they were in January 2010, exports would have to grow at over a 24 percent annual rate over the next two years. Since exports have not even grown at a 10 percent annualized rate over the past three years, that sustained 24 percent average annual growth rate might be a hard target to realize.

Today’s release of trade data showing a widening trade deficit and this slowdown of export growth suggest that the president’s trade policy might not live up to his promises.