The Corner

On Fiscal Consolidation and the German Recovery

Do take a look at Reihan’s fascinating post on fiscal consolidation and the German recovery (and the article he links to). It’s all certainly food for thought, and useful ammunition for the budget-cutting cause, but (and this is a major caveat) it’s important to remember that Germany has only been able to do what it’s done in recent years with the help of an artificial and possibly unsustainable currency regime (membership in the eurozone) that has given a substantial additional boost to its competitiveness while crippling that of its eurozone-based competitors.


 

The euro was (almost certainly) weaker than the deutschmark would have been had it been allowed to live, and, crucially, it turned out be stronger than (probably) the franc and (certainly) the lira and peseta could have been expected to be had they been allowed to survive. That had the consequence of making German exports even cheaper against their eurozone competition than would otherwise have been the case, not only externally, but within the zone as well.




 

Turning to the other successful budget-cutting countries mentioned in the post: Reihan adds a prudent ”to be sure” that Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, Canada, and Norway “had the advantage of a more favorable global economic climate” when they donned their hairshirts. The importance of that “to be sure” should not be underestimated — Sweden, for example, has an important export sector, heavily weighted to cyclical goods — nor should the fact that, unlike the U.S., (a) these are, with the exception of Canada, all fairly small economies, and (b) in the Swedish and Norwegian cases at least, there had been massive currency devaluations in the early 1990s. Additionally, Norway benefited from massive oil revenues, while Ireland received enormous boosts both from (a) a very large influx of EU funds and (b) artificially low interest rates in the run-up to euro membership and for many years thereafter.


 

When it comes to the stimulus/austerity debate, there are, I think, limits to what the U.S. can learn from the international experience. As Reihan wisely says, “humility is appropriate” when looking at policy options in this area.

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