Here is how important Florida and North Carolina are. With them, and no other unwarranted assumptions — he’s been looking strong in Iowa, Ohio, and Maine’s 2nd district — Trump gets to 260 electoral votes:

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Without them, he can pick up a bunch of states in addition to Ohio, Iowa, and Maine-2, e.g., Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, and still come up short:

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Or completely unlock the Midwest — winning Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, in addition to the Maine district — and still not get there:

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All of this is quite abstract, of course. If Trump wins Wisconsin or Michigan, where he hasn’t led, he’s going to win Florida, which has been close. But the importance of Florida and North Carolina is why the latest bout of polling is so tough for Trump: