I used to be a Bush-will-thread-the needle-guy, way back when–like yesterday. But I’ve soured on the upper Midwest. Maybe Bush can get Iowa, maybe. But it is much more likely winning scenario that he wins Florida and Ohio. That will pretty much do it, and he can forget about eking out Ohio replacement votes (with NH, IA and NM.) The Bush folks sound nervously confident about Ohio–a lot rides on it.