Re: Stanley’s question on foreign policy and elections. 1812 was fought on the eponymous war, which had already begun. Madison, the incumbent who had declared the war, won narrowly (it came down to Pennsylvania). Politics in his second term was as acrid as it has ever been, much worse than now. Leading Federalists,including my hero, Gouverneur Morris, wished to break up the union rather than persist with the war (that’s not why he’s my hero).

1844 was heavily influenced by Texas–to annex, or not? It was known that annexation might well provoke war with Mexico. Henry Clay tried to straddle, was hammered from both sides, and lost another tight one (it came down to New York).

Lincoln was expecting to lose the election of 1864 (a war election, though not a foreign policy one, unless you’re a Confederate). Sherman’s late victories saved his bacon.

War was important in the elections of 1916 and 1940, though since the major candidates were both straddling, it did not cut so clearly.

Two factors in the crushing load of incompetence that brought Carter down in 1980 were his mishandling of Iran, and the Soviet invasion of, yes, Afghanistan.