From last night’s Special Report with Brit Hume:

—On the House—

MORT KONDRACKE: . . . [T]he closer you get to the actual election, the more predictive the generic ballot becomes and we’re getting pretty close here. . . . Look, I would say that if anybody can pull it out it’s Rove and Mehlman, but you know, in this atmosphere I don’t see how it’s possible. . . .
FRED BARNES: Here’s how Rove can be right and the polls can be wrong. It’s just a question of the sample. You know, polls do not predict turn-out very well . . . Karl Rove said, the other day, on NPR when Robert Segal, the announcer said, “Well, I’m watching the same polls you are” Karl said, “No, you’re not. I’m reading 68 polls everyday” and if these ones, Brit, are campaign polls that have a different sample than they may show something quite different.
KONDRACKE: But you know, but the polls on President Bush’s approval rating, which does link to — a presidential approval rating does link to the outcome of an election. . . . There’s no question that he’s down below 40 and if you’re below 40, you know, you’re party’s in trouble. It’s been true year in and year out.
NINA EASTON: . . . when you have pollsters on both sides of the party saying the Republican Party is not going to hold the House, I mean, it’s hard to argue against that.
BARNES: It’s not that hard to argue against it, particularly since pollsters are wrong so much. You know, I personally think Republicans are going to lose the House . . . [T]he question is not whether they’re going to hold the House, but how — whether they’re going to just lose a few more seats beyond that or a good number. Now, I don’t think they’re going to lose many more and so Democrats may have a numerical majority in the House, but not a working governing majority. . . .

—On the Senate—

BARNES: I think Corker [R-TN] is probably favored now and this is a seat — you know, the Democrats need six seats to take over the Senate, they have little margin for error.
KONDRACKE: This race [in Virginia] — my rule of thumb is . . . that if an incumbent candidate can’t get up to 50 percent of the vote by this time that he’s probably going to lose the election. Now, this is razor thin, The “Get Out the Vote” machinery on the part of the Republicans will work to Allen’s advantage. I just think that Allen is in very weak shape. . . . I think he’s going to lose.
BARNES: Yeah, there been a couple of polls recently that had showed Webb ahead. You know, he is the first Buchananite Democrat. I don’t know of any other, you know he’s anti-immigration and so on. He’d fit in with Buchanan a lot more than he does with the rest of the Democrats, but I think in the end Allen will prevail.