From last nightโs Special Report with Brit Hume:
โOn the Houseโ
BILL KRISTOL: I donโt think anything is happening that would be enough to make a difference in the House. Thereโs no [generic] poll that is now closer than four points. Fox News is now showing itโs back up to 13. No, I think Democrats are going to win the House.
FRED BARNES: Republicans . . . normally have a higher percentage of likely voters than among Democrats. And for months and months now Democrats had, in polls anyway, a higher percentage of voters who are actually going to go to the polls. Now it switched back to the way it normally which is in an election, with Republicans more likely to go to the polls. And that means, I think, that it means that Republicans going to do better than they were, it looked like, a week ago or two weeks ago.
HUME: Whatโs your estimate, Fred? Youโre saying in the 20 to 25 range? Control of the House with a small margin.
BARNES: Yeah.
MORT KONDRACKE: You know, Iโm in the 25 to 30 range. Something like that โ bigger.
HUME: What do you think โ Bill.
KRISTOL: Thirty-two as of today. I think it will trend a little bigger. . . . It could be 35 to 40. Right now . . . trying to go through every district, I got to 32.
โOn the Senateโ
KRISTOL: It could be 51-49 [for the Democrats]. So many close races. I talked to one Democrat today who said, Rhode Island, theyโre now very nervous about Chafee. Heโs had a pretty impressive comeback there. On the other hand, Arizona, which was considered a safe Republican seat is now down to about a four-point race. . . . I think Kyl [AZ] could lose, that would be an upset. If Kyl loses, that will mean itโs a true blow-out on election night, obviously. I think the Senateโs, 50-50, but yeah.
KONDRACKE: I think about a five or six seat pick-up in the Senate. . . .
BARNES: At the end of the day thereโs one thing that helps Republicans and that is voters donโt like Democrats either. But, so for that reason among others, I donโt think Democrats will take the Senate.






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