I’ve just been poring through some polling numbers here in North Carolina as well as some national surveys for comparison. While there are many reasons to conclude that Bush and the GOP are politically on the wrong track — including, for starters, the wrong track/right track disparity in the midst of a fairly strong economy — I am getting the distinct impression that gas prices are overwhelming other issues among swing voters. The anger about gas is much, much hotter than on the other issues, and is present across the range of voter groups.

What I’m suggesting is that if a year from now there isn’t a lot of obvious progress in Iraq (but no obvious regress) AND the Harriet Miers mess remains problematic AND federal spending remains unrestrained AND Bush’s handling of Katrina continues to rankle, the president and his party may still be okay if gas prices are down closer to $2 than to $3. Kinda of depressing, in a way, but that seems to be the political reality.