David Winston, the Republican pollster, argues that a Bush lead of 4 to 5 points poses a problem for the Kerry campaign that hasn’t been much discussed. Kerry’s campaign has been focused on ekeing out a victory in selected swing states–Ohio, West Virginia, etc. That makes sense if the electorate is closely divided. But a significant Bush lead means that he has to gain ground nationally among select demographic groups. “You have to move married women with children in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin,” says Winston. “And they’re going national at the same time that they reshuffle the campaign.” They have to restructure their strategy while having already spent money on the old one, he adds. They have to change the national equilibrium–and things like “the hurricanes are taking time off the clock.”