A batch of economy-wide stats was released this morning, covering retail sales, industrial production, import prices, and consumer confidence.

The verdict? It’s a 2 percent economy.

Might the current financial turmoil throttle back growth a little more in the next six months? Yes, perhaps. Will there be some negative earnings surprises, especially from financial companies? Sure.

But the bears would have us believe the sub-prime credit virus heralds the end of the world. They are wrong. Remember this: Our free-market capitalist economy is resilient and durable. It has proven time and again that it can take a punch.

Sure, recession probabilities have increased. But so what? We’ve had virtually uninterrupted prosperity for twenty-five years, going back to the supply-side economy and technological boom launched by President Reagan. Since then, we’ve experienced 93 positive GDP quarters and only 5 negative ones. That’s a truly phenomenal batting average.

Consider this: Marginal tax rates are low. Inflation is low. Interest rates are low. And the world economy remains strong. The stock market — which I still believe is the best barometer of the health of business and the economic future — has behaved surprisingly well during this difficult stretch of turbulence. In fact, the sum total of the so-called “bear assault” is only a 4.5 percent correction from Dow 14,000 and other index peaks registered two months ago.

Yes, profits are getting sloppy. And yes, there are some credit shocks out there yet to be revealed. However, the Fed will reduce the cost of money by bringing down its basic target rate. President Bush will veto any Democratic tax hikes. And at the margin, the Iraq War story is better, not worse. Meanwhile, American entrepreneurs are still working hard and creating new jobs every day.

The animal spirits may have had their wings clipped a bit by the credit crunch, but there is still plenty of sizzle and juice in that story. It’s very easy to be totally pessimistic and bearish right now. That is precisely why I will avoid falling into that trap.

Optimists are winners. Pessimists are losers.