I don’t think anybody — not a person — expected Bill Cassidy actually to run ahead of Mary Landrieu today. The question was whether he would stay within a few percentage points; if Landrieu was below 45 and he was above 40, with conservative Rob Maness well over 10, then it would be a great result for Cassidy and bad for her. Well, it looks as if Cassidy might actually not only have put himself in good position for the runoff, but a commanding position. If Landrieu starts out actually behind him, she’s almost certainly toast. As of right now, he’s ahead. Here are the latest available numbers: With 3,856 out of 4,018 precincts reporting (96 percent), Cassidy has 587,741 votes to Landrieu’s 583,921. Even if the remaining precincts are inner-city New Orleans, she will barely edge ahead of him; as of right now, obviously, she’s still behind. Meanwhile, Maness right now has 198,023 votes. In effect, this means Landrieu in the runoff must somehow make up a 200,000 vote deficit to the combined Republican vote. Despite my earlier post about the arithmetic in Louisiana, that’s well-nigh impossible. The result is terrific for Cassidy, and absolutely disastrous for Landrieu. Stunningly bad. Conservatives/Republicans will feel very confident going into the runoff.