A big reason that independent Greg Orman is leading GOP senator Pat Roberts by ten points in Kansas is that one out of five backers of Republican governor Sam Brownback (who is tied in the polls) are defecting to Orman.

Orman has pledged that he will caucus with and receive committee assignments with whichever party has the Senate majority this January. This has been of some comfort to those Republicans who are confident they will win a Senate majority. But it turns out Orman’s stance is more slippery and complicated than he originally let on.

In an interview this week with NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, Orman repeated his pledge that he would caucus with the Senate majority because “it’s in the best interests of the voters of Kansas that they have a senator in the majority.”

But then he added that that didn’t mean he would be averse to some party jumping.

“If four or five months goes by, and it’s clear they’re engaged in the same old partisan politics, we’ll be able to change our allegiances and work with the other side,” he said. “And I think that’s a really strong and important tool, to hold the Senate accountable for actually getting something done.”

Asked by O’Donnell if he can envision switching parties once he arrives in Washington, Orman responded that he “absolutely” can.

So it appears as if Greg Orman, who ran for office as a Democrat in 2008 as he backed Barack Obama and now says he voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, is more of an ideological black box than anything else. If the two parties are tied 50 to 50 after the November elections, he has effectively said he will be up for the best offer. But if he does join one caucus or the other it apparently will be no more than a short-term lease.

Orman claims this all makes sense: “Ultimately, this is about solving problems. This is about the voters of Kansas saying — the status quo doesn’t work anymore.” Actually, it seems more like the situation is all about saying anything so he can cross the finish line as a winner. Kansas voters tend to like their senators bland but straight-shooters. The voluble Orman is anything but bland, and now it appears his political matrix is more complicated than a Rubik’s Cube. Look for this race to be close before Election Day.