I have been generally skeptical of reports that young voters are warming up to the GOP, in large part because so many of the write-ups I’ve seen during the last year have conflated the news that Millenials are souring on the Democratic party with the claim that Millenials are turning on to Republicans. Nevertheless, I’m coming around to the idea that there has been some movement. Consider this New York Times post:

Memo to Democrats: Your days of winning the youth vote may be over. Starting next week.
A new poll from the Institute of Politics at Harvard University contains a surprising finding: Slightly more than half of young Americans who say they will ‘’definitely be voting’’ in the midterm elections would prefer a Republican-controlled Congress.

The claim that the Democratic party’s “days of winning the youth vote may be over” is a touch premature. It is one thing for the Republican party to be winning those who are “definitely” voting in “the midterms,” but it is quite another for the Republican party to be on the brink of “winning the youth vote” per se. We do not know, for example, what young people will think when a general election comes along. Perhaps Millennials see presidents as being substantially different animals than congressmen? We do not know who will be running in 2016, and which issue will be at the forefront of the campaign. Perhaps “definite” voters’ preference for Republicans is the product of a temporary desire for change that will not translate to the White House two years hence? We do not know, either, whether young people just want to see some more balance in the government. Perhaps Harvard’s numbers are the simple product of the political pendulum, and, after a couple of years of bolder conservative pushback, the enthusiasm will wane? As always, time will tell.

Still, at the congressional level at least, it is impossible not to conclude that the GOP is making some progress. As we have established, “very likely” voters have recently swung back into the GOP’ column:

In 2010, the last time Harvard polled young voters before a midterm election, 55 percent of those very likely to vote favored a Democratic Congress, while 43 percent preferred Republican control.
The new survey, released Wednesday, found a preference for Republican control among very likely voters, 51 percent to 47 percent. The institute’s polling director, John Della Volpe, said the findings suggest that the youth vote may now be up for grabs.
“The period of time from 2004 to 2012 where Democrats maintained a significant margin of young voters appears to be over,’’ Mr. Della Volpe said. “The youth vote is now returning back to pre-2004 levels, where it is actually a key swing vote.’’

But that’s not all. If Harvard is correct, the partisan divide among all “young Americans” is an awful lot smaller than I thought it was. The Times proposes that,

before Republicans get too excited . . . they might look at the overall preferences of young Americans. When those who do not vote are taken into account, 50 percent prefer that Democrats control Congress, while 43 percent prefer that Republicans do.

I have to disagree a little with the conclusion here. If this is true, Republicans should indeed get “excited.” The conservative party is losing by 7 points among the young? Time to crack open the champagne.