How the Senate Is Breaking at the End of 2024

Every two years, when I look at the fall polling in Senate races, I use the same basic framework, which I explained here and here:

My approach is, I stress, a metric, not a model. I’m not making mathematical predictions or odds. I’m just collecting the data we have in one place, asking how much room there remains to move based on the current polling, and drawing from that some conclusions about what races are most winnable if one party or the other has the wind in its favor.