Excellent New York Times piece on the background to the Hariri assassination. Here is an account of Hariri reporting to fellow Lebanonese politicians after a meeting with Assad in Damascus last August:

After a few moments, he leaned forward and described how the Syrian leader had threatened him, curtly ordering him to amend Lebanon’s Constitution to give President Émile Lahoud, the man Syria used to block Mr. Hariri’s every move, another three years in office.
“Bashar told him, ‘Lahoud is me,’ ” Mr. Jumblatt recalled in an interview. “Bashar told Hariri: ‘If you and Chirac want me out of Lebanon, I will break Lebanon.’ ” He was referring to the French president, Jacques Chirac.
In the month since Mr. Hariri was assassinated, members of Lebanon’s anti-Syrian opposition have pointed to that Aug. 26 encounter in Damascus as fateful. Although opposition leaders acknowledge that they lack firm evidence tying Syria or its Lebanese agents directly to Mr. Hariri’s assassination, they link that day to his slaying on Feb. 14.
“To tell you the truth, when I heard him telling us those words, I knew that it was his condemnation of death,” Mr. Jumblatt said.

In October there was this warning shot:

As Marwan Hamade, the former minister of economy and trade and a Hariri ally, drove away from his seaside apartment building on Oct. 1, a roadside bomb flung his Mercedes into the air. He clambered from the flaming wreckage and collapsed to the ground at the very moment the car’s fuel tank exploded, sending shrapnel flying in all directions. Mr. Hamade managed to survive with head injuries, severe burns and a broken leg.
He was one of four cabinet ministers who had voted against the Lahoud extension and then quit the government. He was also among the 29 Parliament members who voted against the constitutional amendment granting Mr. Lahoud three more years. The failed assassination was seen as a warning.

Meanwhile, Lahoud was in his speedos:

Among Lebanese, Mr. Lahoud, 68, has a reputation for lounging through most afternoons in his Speedos by the pool at the Yarze country club, reading Paris-Match magazine and holding a tanning mirror. News accounts that he was swimming during Mr. Hariri’s funeral reached such a crescendo that he felt compelled to deny them. “I swim every day – it’s my workout – but on that specific day, I did not swim,” he told a gathering of the Journalists’ Union Council.