This just in from Michael New, a Dartmouth grad (and protégé of Jeff Hart), now doing work at Harvard. Mike answers my questions, names websites for backup–in short, provides everything to make the statistician’s heart leap. (Note to John Miller: Shall we take Mike’s work as definitive?)

I just saw the questions that you posted on NRO’s The Corner about
California’s fiscal condition. I just authored a Cato Institute Briefing paper
on this very topic.
To answer your questions:
A) In fiscal year 1998 the California state budget was $52.9 billion. In FY 2003 it was $78.1 billion. This is an increase of 47.6%.
B) Between 1998 and 2003 state population has increased by approximately 8.9%
B1) You need to consider inflation which has gone up by 12.6% between 1998 and
2003
C) If spending had increased by population growth plus inflation since 1998
(21.5%). Fiscal 2003 Spending would be at $64.3 billion. This is $13.8 billion
less. Hence, the deficit would at least be $13.8 billion smaller.
*However* if spending were held in check, surpluses would have accumulated in
previous years. These surpluses could also be used to reduce the size of the
deficit. Assume *all* the surplus revenues from previous years 1998-2001, were placed in reserve. The reserve funds could be used to pay down the deficit and today California would likely have a small surplus left over.