The Corner

If At First You Don’t Succeed . . .

Education Scotland:

The legend of [Robert the Bruce] and spider is world famous. It is said that in the early days of Bruce’s reign he was defeated by the English and driven into exile. He was on the run — a hunted man. He sought refuge in a small dark cave and sat and watched a little spider trying to make a web. Time and time again the spider would fall and then climb slowly back up to try again.

If at first you don’t succeed – try, try again.

Finally, as the Bruce looked on, the spider managed to stick a strand of silk to the cave wall and began to weave a web. Robert the Bruce was inspired by the spider and went on to defeat the English….


BBC, September 19:

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond says he intends to stand down, after losing the independence vote. He said it had been “the privilege of my life to serve as First Minister”.

“For me as leader my time is nearly over. But for Scotland, the campaign continues and the dream shall never die,” he said.

BBC, December 7:

Former SNP [Scottish National Party] leader and First Minister Alex Salmond has announced he is to stand for a seat at Westminster at next May’s General Election. He unveiled his candidacy for his party’s nomination in the Gordon constituency at a meeting in Ellon.

Salmond gave various reasons for wanting to reenter the fray. This was the most interesting:

He said he believed the SNP and “progressive allies” could emerge as a “powerful force” at the UK Parliament. . . . He also ruled out any potential coalition with the Conservatives after the election.




So what’s going on? Doing the math ahead of the British election in May is very tricky (cramming a whole bunch of competitive parties into a first-past-the-post voting system will do that), but the way things are going it still looks (despite the rise of “red UKIP”) as if it will be the Conservatives that take the main hit from the rise of UKIP (for some discussion as to how this forecast can be reconciled with UKIP’s growing success with “old Labour” voters, this British Election Study has an interesting take).

At the same time, the Labour party has lost immense ground to the Scottish National Party in Labour’s Scottish heartland. Those Scottish votes have traditionally played a very important part in taking Labour to a majority. Without them, a minority Labour government is looking like the best bet, governing with the formal or tacit support of the Conservatives’ current Liberal Democrat coalition partners (if enough of them survive) and/or the Scots Nationalists. What Salmond, a man of the Left and a tough, slippery, and very skilled politician, is doing is making sure that he will have a a seat in the British Parliament when the horse-trading begins.

The result is likely to pull British politics even further to the left than Labour’s “Red Ed” Milliband could manage by himself and, one way or another, it will put Scottish independence back on the agenda (not that it had ever left it).


Turbulent times ahead.

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