Trump is beatable — obviously so. But he is not yet beaten.
I wrote yesterday on a poll by Suffolk University for USA Today that showed Ron DeSantis up 23 points (56 percent to 33 percent) on Donald Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Later in the day, Morning Consult released its tracking poll showing Trump 18 points ahead of DeSantis (49 percent to 31 percent), a result consistent with the RealClearPolitics poll average. This morning, the Wall Street Journal has another poll out showing DeSantis with a 14-point lead (52 percent to 38 percent). What gives?
It’s simple: When Republican voters are asked a list of names, Trump still leads the field by a lot. He has universal name recognition, and for all of his well-documented flaws, Republican voters trust Trump to take policy actions they want. The mounting dissatisfaction with Trump is not enough for just any Republican to knock him over, at not least yet: When the WSJ tested Mike Pence against Trump, Trump enjoys a 35-point lead (63 percent to 28 percent). But when a one-on-one binary choice is presented between Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis wins. He has that same trust on policy, but without Trump’s extensive personal and political baggage. As in 2016, the problem is getting Trump in a one-on-one race. Republican leadership owes the party that choice and should do everything in its power to get to that point.
Trump is beatable — obviously so. But he is not yet beaten.