The Corner

Politics & Policy

Incentives and Unemployment

I cannot say that this comes as a great surprise.

Via the Wall Street Journal:

The number of unemployment-benefit recipients is falling at a faster rate in Missouri and 21 other states canceling enhanced and extended payments this month, suggesting that ending the aid could push more people to take jobs.

Federal pandemic aid bills boosted unemployment payments by $300 a person each week and extended those payments for as long as 18 months, well longer than the typical 26 weeks or less. The benefits are set to expire in early September, but states can opt out before then.

Missouri Gov. Mike Parson said the benefits were helpful during the height of the pandemic, but their continuation has “worsened the workforce issues we are facing.”

It’s worth noting that Parson valued the help given by the supplement when the pandemic was at its worst (I argued myself in favor of extending it back in July last year, and for maintaining it at a level higher than some in the GOP favored), but that was then. Circumstances have changed, and so should priorities.

The Wall Street Journal:

[Parson], like many other Republican governors, moved to end the federally funded benefits to address businesses’ concerns about a labor shortage. The state’s unemployment rate was 4.2% in May, well below the national average of 5.8%, according to the U.S. Labor Department.

Missouri cut off payments as of June 12, joining three other states as the first to do so. Seven states followed with an end on June 19, and this weekend, benefits are expiring in 10 more states. Four more states will curtail benefits by July 10.

The number of workers paid benefits through regular state programs fell 13.8% by the week ended June 12 from mid-May—when many governors announced changes—in states saying that benefits would end in June, according to an analysis by Jefferies LLC economists. That compares with a 10% decline in states ending benefits in July, and a 5.7% decrease in states ending benefits in September. Workers on state programs would lose the $300 weekly federal enhancement but could continuing receiving the state benefits…

“You’re starting to see a response to these programs ending,” said Aneta Markowska, Jefferies’ chief financial economist. In recent months “employers were having to compete with the government handing out money, and that makes it very hard to attract workers.” . . .

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