The interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS is continuing to surprise scientists.
Michael Gibson, writing in the Spectator World:
In a recent study that appeared on arXiv, the open source hub for yet-to-be-reviewed scientific papers, astrophysicists report that 3I/ATLAS is shedding nickel and iron at a rate they can only describe as “exceptional” when compared to typical comets. Freakier still, it is also emitting carbon dioxide and water in a ratio that other researchers have called “unusual” and that, according to one starstruck team, would match the signature of exhaust from a rocket propulsion system. And yet another recent paper found that the object is pulling off some light-bending voodoo — changing the polarization of light — in a way that these scientists say is “unprecedented,” something no rock in our solar system has ever demonstrated before.
But this does not mean that it is an alien craft.
As Gibson notes:
We’ve only seen two previous interstellar objects pass through our solar system, each but a brief guest. True, our new visitor might be unusual and unprecedented compared to the typical parade of comets, but we’ve only recently built the tools to detect and observe these travelers. Our sample size is too small. The universe cares nothing for our taxonomies; doubtless there are other dark, fast, and therefore invisible pieces of cosmic debris that currently go undetected. Only once we’ve accumulated enough examples, and with improved sky surveys, might 3I/ATLAS not look so unique after all.
“The universe cares nothing for our taxonomies.”
There is a line to enjoy.
Meanwhile, speculation that 3I/ATLAS might be some sort of alien craft rages on, with Harvard professor (of astrophysics!) Avi Loeb once again leading the charge. He had noted that October 29, when 3I/ATLAS came closest to the sun, would have been an ideal time for it to launch probes in our direction. So far that does not seem to have happened, but I suppose we will have to wait and see. I am not holding my breath.
Perhaps I should be.
Gibson:
As every game theorist and gang member knows, the optimal strategy for living in our universe is to stay silent no matter what. Why become a target by calling attention to yourself? Better to keep quiet and not attract threats. You never know who is out there who might come to enslave you, eat you, experiment on you or simply just mess with you. If 3I/ATLAS is a glowing mothership, its colorful, dramatic entrance flagrantly flouts all the rules. Aliens brazen enough to announce their existence to others with such fanfare are probably hard-hitting ETs.
This is a reference to what has come to be known as the splendidly dark, splendidly named “dark forest” thesis, which seeks to explain the absence of any alien communication as the result of caution. In the past, Loeb has described this as follows:
One of the solutions to Enrico Fermi’s question about extraterrestrials: “where is everybody?” is offered by the dark forest hypothesis, popularized by Cixin Liu’s science fiction novel “The Dark Forest.” This hypothesis proposes that our cosmic neighborhood is dangerous, filled with intelligent civilizations that are hostile and silent to avoid detection by potential predators. In this context, the silence in searches for radio signals by the SETI community is not caused by the lack of extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations, but is instead a consequence of them fearing mutual destruction.
If this is correct, of course, we may already be doomed, consigned to our fate by some far-traveled TV broadcast. Let it not be Keeping Up with the Kardashians.