For what that’s worth.

Update: From a reader:

Good morning Jonah. I’m probably not the only geek writing to you about this. But Intrade contracts don’t count independents caucusing with Democrats as Democrats. So having the Senate.Dem contract at or below 50 doesn’t imply that the probability of Republican control is at or above .5. That’s why the Senate.Rep contract is still trading in the teens, and there is a Senate.Neither contract that is around 40 right now. The bets on the individual Senate races are for Republicans to pick up 8. (Or, they were yesterday evening when I looked through them all.) Have a great week.