While policies to support the ‘race’ to net zero global emissions by 2050 are likely to persist, signs that the race is in trouble continue to mount.
While policies to support the “race” to net zero global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 are likely to persist for a quite a while yet, signs that the race is in trouble continue to mount:
Germany’s minister for energy and economy, Katherina Reiche said this week that the EU should allow itself some wiggle room and, rather than net zero, accept that there might be a gap of maybe a 5 or 10 percent by 2050.”
Might?
As Politico reports, Reiche explained:
“If you have strict and rigid goals, you bind yourself, it ends up that you lose industries that you need . . . and we can’t afford that we lose our energy-intensive industries in Europe and in Germany . . . At the end of the day, it is good to have a goal of sustainability — but if sustainability crashes your economy, you have to readjust,” she said. “And that’s what we’re doing right now.”
Germany is losing those industries, and it will lose more. A 5 to 10 percent cut in an already unachievable target (under current technological and political conditions) would be a start to trying to stop those losses, but only a start.
One big problem is for Reiche is that she is a member of the center-right half of Germany’s governing coalition, but the other half of that coalition remains largely attached to climatist orthodoxy. There is also the matter of Germany’s continued membership in the EU, and despite the occasional nod to flexibility (of which there will be more), Brussels remains committed to the 2050 target.
As I wrote the other day:
Even in Brussels, illusions can only survive for so long. The net zero timetable will, much like the financial rules designed to anchor the Eurozone, be tacitly allowed to slip to stave off a dangerous split within the bloc. Areas of wriggle room will be found, and are already being found. Following protests led by Germany, there will likely be some, if inadequate, easing of the EU’s (almost) comprehensive ban on the sale of new combustion engine cars from 2035.
But ad hoc Band-Aids can only stop Europe’s bleeding for a while. If the EU wants to avoid disaster, the race to net zero by 2050 must be called off.
That won’t happen any time soon, but Reiche’s comments are a sign that things may, however belatedly and however slowly, be moving in the right direction.
In Germany, Reiche has in recent months unveiled plans to build out gas power plants, scrap the previous government’s gas boiler phaseout, remove subsidies for rooftop solar panels, and deprioritize the connection of renewables from the country’s power grid.
She also told the Texas audience [she was speaking at CERAweek] that Germany should drill for fossil fuels in the North Sea, saying: “We have a gas field in the North Sea, which we don’t want to explore. I think we can’t stick to this attitude. We have to also go into our own reserves.”
That’s an attitude that won’t thrill Ed Miliband, Britain’s net zero czar, who is doing what he can to make sure that as much as possible of what remains of the North Sea oil and gas in the British sector remains unexploited.
Miliband likes to claim that the U.K.’s net zero fanaticism is setting an example for the rest of the world.
Meanwhile, as noted in a recent Capital Letter:
Denmark — ironically the country that pioneered wind turbines in Europe — has now formally invited gas producers in its portion of the North Sea to “explore” extending their licenses beyond 2042, the date by which most were set to expire, although a deadline to halt all fossil fuel extraction by 2050 remains (so far?) intact.
Oh yes, via Politico:
The German government is considering firing up idle coal plants to mitigate rising energy costs as a result of the war in Iran, people in Germany’s coalition government told POLITICO.
Oh yes, via Bloomberg:
Japan will allow more use of coal-fired power plants in an effort to boost security of supply to cope with the energy shock from the war in the Middle East.
A temporary measure, but only up to a point:
Coal accounted for the largest share of Japan’s power generation in 2024 and in the previous two years, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF.
Oh yes, also via Bloomberg (March 26):
After the US retreat from action on climate change under President Donald Trump and a timid set of new goals from China, attention focused on India — the world’s third-largest polluter — to provide fresh momentum in global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
A revised green strategy through 2035, endorsed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet on Wednesday, instead outlines a more cautious approach to curbing pollution and reducing reliance on fossil fuels, limiting prospects for progress over the next decade among the three nations, which together account for almost half of all emissions.
Oh yes, via Reuters (March 26):
The world will not be able to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 as outlined in the Paris Agreement, French oil major TotalEnergies said on Thursday, and the company will have to adapt its own climate ambitions as a result.
Total had previously said it had an ambition to be carbon neutral by 2050 in line with society.
“In line with society.” How much has Total’s alignment with this groupthink cost its shareholders?