Perhaps it’s just sympathy for the underdog, or a professional interest in seeing a competitive contest rather than a shoo-in, but I remain unconvinced by those who look at the national polls and see an inevitable Giuliani-Clinton presidential race in 2008. Both candidates have significant problems with the activist base of their respective parties. Furthermore, Giuliani has a knack for self-destruction, and Clinton is going to start having more and more political and message problems related to, well, the other Clinton.

Look at the early-state polls, and things are a lot more competitive. John Edwards holds a consistent, if narrow, lead in Iowa. Clinton is surprisingly weak in New Hampshire, with a lead only in the single digits over Edwards and Obama, who remains a media fave. She’s in a strong position in Nevada, though the number is still about one-third of the vote, but is in second-place in South Carolina in the latest poll I’ve seen (Obama is first, the actual South Carolinian third). Clinton has a huge arsenal of campaign cash, but the others performed very well in fundraising, too, and have enough to compete. Campaign finances are about reaching thresholds, not winning an auction.

On the Republican side, Giuliani and McCain are close together in Iowa, with Romney not a distant third. All three have solid followings in New Hampshire, typically separated by just a few points. Giuliani is, like Clinton, well ahead in Nevada, but is neck-and-neck with McCain in South Carolina. If Thompson gets in, things shuffle around even more. If he doesn’t, and Gingrich pursues his current course of considering an announcement in the fall, which will not materialize into a credible campaign, I suspect that disaffected conservatives may break disproportionately for Romney in some of these early states, preferring the recent convert to the apostate and the grouch.

Basically, it’s early and nothing is decided. Please keep reading your favorite opinion mags and syndicated columnists and watching your favorite political talk shows (please).