No one around these parts has taken the bait on this past weekend’s Biden-mania (thanks, Maureen), but I’ll bite. Despite the chatter, I don’t think the vice president is going to run — but that doesn’t keep me from wanting him to.

Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver handicaps a potential Biden run, and concludes that it would be an all-but-futile endeavor. Hillary has locked down key endorsements, she has a huge war chest, she has high favorability ratings among Democrats, she’s a woman (“historic”!). All fair points. But Biden has one crucial advantage in a primary matchup: He’s not Hillary Clinton. It’s hard to overstate the importance of that fact.

People don’t trust Hillary — not just likely general election voters in swing states; Democrats, too. But they have no viable alternative (Jim Webb? really?), hence the Bernie Bump. Biden would be the mainstream alternative to Hillary, the obvious candidate for Democrats who agree with Hillary’s policies but will hold their noses at the ballot box (unhappy Hillary voters), and for those who agree with her policies but think she’s Sepp Blatter in drag (unhappy Sanders voters).

Nate Silver asks what Biden could run on to differentiate himself. That’s not the point. It’s not about policy. It’s about personality. Hillary is cold, calculating, and untrustworthy; Bernie is a crazy old socialist coot. Biden is a lifelong political heavyweight who, despite having put his foot in his mouth so often he could teach advanced yoga, remains well-liked. Sure, it’s Delaware, but “Uncle Joe” wins elections.

And why shouldn’t he run? He’s 72 years old (he’d be 74 on Inauguration Day), which means this is almost certainly his last chance. He has no political future ahead of him (I don’t suspect he’ll pull a John Quincy Adams), so he has no need to ingratiate himself with the Clinton Machine. As soon as he announced his candidacy he would rake in money and media. If he wants to be president, why shouldn’t he run? He has nothing to lose.

For Republicans it would be a boon. Biden has been an attack dog before, and it’s not hard to imagine him going after Hillary savagely; since he would be jumping into the race late, he would need to hit hard and fast. That would force Hillary to start parrying, which would upend her campaign strategy — Keep Calm and Don’t Blow It — and to counterattack, which would highlight her shrewishness. She could still win, certainly, but she would arrive to the general election bruised. No Republican nominee would much mind that.

I see only two reasons Biden would not run: a) he doesn’t want to be president, or b) he thinks Hillary is inevitable, and he does not want to bloody her. If it’s the latter, that bodes well for the GOP.