“Having spent the last few days in the suburbs of Pittsburgh talking to lifelong Democrats and watching the blizzard of non-stop political ads, I get the sense the state may be trending Bush.

True, it’s a blue collar, working class state that Gore won by four points in 2000. But it’s also a deeply patriotic, pro-military, pro-gun state. It was deeply affected by 9/11 and its former governor — Tom Ridge — is Secretary of Homeland Security. The Bin Laden tape released Friday may have more of an effect than pundits realize.

Kerry has led in PA by several points all fall. But a new Quinnipiac poll has Bush and Kerry tied 47-47 with 6 percent undecided. Gallup now has Bush up by four points (50-46).

Why? The leading issue for likely voters is now terrorism (31%), followed by the economy (28%), according to Gallup. That’s a dramatic reversal from September when the economy was the top issue (34%) and terrorism came in second (28%).”