Joni Ernst’s Decision Clouds the Outlook for Senate Republicans in 2026

This report, if true, is suboptimal for Republican hopes of keeping control of the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms.

Ernst won her first Senate bid in 2014 by the comfortable margin of 52 percent to 43.7 percent. In 2020, she won again, 51.7 percent to 45.1 percent. If she ran for reelection in 2026, Ernst would be a heavy favorite again.

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Jim Geraghty

Jim Geraghty is the senior political correspondent of National Review.

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This report, if true, is suboptimal for Republican hopes of keeping control of the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms.

Ernst won her first Senate bid in 2014 by the comfortable margin of 52 percent to 43.7 percent. In 2020, she won again, 51.7 percent to 45.1 percent. If she ran for reelection in 2026, Ernst would be a heavy favorite again.