Juan Cole, a University of Michigan professor, writes:

The AEI predicted that secular ex-Baathist Ayad Allawi would win the 2005 elections

That sounded strange, not only because AEI is a collection of scholars working independently and does not make institutional predictions. Mr. Cole does not footnote, but I found one event where both Reuel and I spoke on the subject:

  • I had said the Shi’a list would win a plurality. They did.
  • Reuel Marc Gerecht has said, “It is likely that Ayad Allawi will not retain power in Iraq after the election”

Juan, care to give a footnote or citation? We both warned long and hard about efforts by Iran to exploit the situation in Iraq. You remember — you dismissed those warnings.