Kamala Harris Is the Incumbent Again

Amid the Democratic Party’s euphoric August, there were some indications in the polling that suggested Kamala Harris had managed to shed the deadweight with which Joe Biden had manacled his governing partner. She presented herself as the candidate for change, and voters seemed to be buying it. That was a counterintuitive conclusion for voters to reach of the incumbent vice president, and the New York Times/Siena poll has shown this false oasis out to be the mirage it always was.

As even casual political observers might expect, voters see Donald Trump as the candidate to produce either “major” or “minor” change to the status quo as president (61 percent). By contrast, a majority of voters (56 percent) believe Harris will deliver “more of the same.” That’s a problem for any candidate in a race in which only 3 — 3 — percent of voters hope the next president doesn’t divert at all from Biden’s record. Fully 95 percent of voters want the next president to depart from Biden’s approach, the level of divergence from the unpopular president being the only point of disagreement among nearly all Americans.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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Amid the Democratic Party’s euphoric August, there were some indications in the polling that suggested Kamala Harris had managed to shed the deadweight with which Joe Biden had manacled his governing partner. She presented herself as the candidate for change, and voters seemed to be buying it. That was a counterintuitive conclusion for voters to reach of the incumbent vice president, and the New York Times/Siena poll has shown this false oasis out to be the mirage it always was.

As even casual political observers might expect, voters see Donald Trump as the candidate to produce either “major” or “minor” change to the status quo as president (61 percent). By contrast, a majority of voters (56 percent) believe Harris will deliver “more of the same.” That’s a problem for any candidate in a race in which only 3 — 3 — percent of voters hope the next president doesn’t divert at all from Biden’s record. Fully 95 percent of voters want the next president to depart from Biden’s approach, the level of divergence from the unpopular president being the only point of disagreement among nearly all Americans.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.