Thanks to Hans Kundnani, writing in the Spectator, I learnt a splendid new word today, Kanzlerinnendämmerung, which he translates as the ‘twilight of the chancellors’. His article is a wide-ranging piece on what Jimmy Carter, a lesser—but less destructive—figure than Merkel, might once have referred to as the ‘malaise’ now gripping Germany. I don’t agree with all of it, but the conclusion is, I think, correct:

Merkel is likely to survive for the time being. Much of the criticism of her has come from the right wing of her own party, the Christian Democrats, rather than the Social Democrats, her compliant coalition partner. But it remains hard to imagine the most plausible challenger, the 73-year-old finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, deposing her. Merkel will probably make further concessions to her right-wing critics, and move on.

That’s correct, I think.

Stefan Wagstyl, writing in the Financial Times earlier this week, took a long (and broadly sympathetic) look at the situation in which the “modest east German pastor’s daughter” (well, the last four words are true) now finds herself, without, however, underplaying the strains that are now building up.

Pegida, a populist movement in the eastern city of Dresden that draws thousands to regular rallies, this month invited a speaker who expressed regret that concentration camps no longer functioned. Worse, xenophobic violence is spreading with 500 attacks on refugee accommodation this year, more than double the 170 recorded for all 2014. Interior minister Thomas de Maizière, a close Merkel ally, has warned of a “dangerous radicalization…”

Merkel has already been a disaster for Germany, a catastrophe for Europe and an enabler of post-democracy. Nevertheless, even by these dismal standards, reviving the most sinister elements of Germany’s radical right would be a poisonous addition to a miserable ‘legacy’ about which there is very little good to say.

But again, Schäuble is no Brutus, and, when it comes to immigration, the left would probably be even worse than Merkel:

Her social democrat coalition partners and the parliamentary opposition Green and far-left Linke parties, all favour her open door approach.

As Wagstyl recognizes, such challenge as there is to Merkel is on the right:

Under pressure from conservative voters, and from the AfD’s rise, more and more CDU and CSU MPs are calling for policy change, even a U-turn. The criticism is clearest from the CSU, under leader Horst Seehofer whose pressure for new border controls is paying off — Ms Merkel is backing CSU-led proposals for frontier transit facilities so refugees can be processed at the border instead of, as now, inside Germany.

The AfD began as a party based on opposition to the euro, but after a bruising split, now focuses primarily on a more classically populist right agenda, including a far tougher line on immigration. Despite (if that’s the word) that split it now stands at 8.5 percent in the polls, its best ever score nationally. The CSU is the more right-wing half of the right-wing half of Merkel’s coalition:

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s most important critic in the refugee crisis is not to be found in the parliamentary opposition or even among the rightwing demonstrators sporadically taking to Germany’s streets. He is instead her greatest political ally — Horst Seehofer, chief minister of Bavaria and head of the Bavaria-based CSU party linked for decades with Ms Merkel’s CDU. He immediately condemned the “refugees welcome” strategy as a “mistake” and has been urging her to change course ever since…. But Mr Seehofer’s point is not to take action himself — he is applying pressure on Ms Merkel. With 56 of the 311 CDU/CSU’s MPs coming from the CSU, he can squeeze her in Berlin as well as from his Munich headquarters…. The CSU’s national influence depends on symbiosis with the CDU and yet Mr Seehofer seems ready to stretch his relationship with Ms Merkel close to breaking point, if not beyond. Günter Bannas, the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper’s political editor, says the situation is clear: “Seehofer is no longer her partner.”

That’s something of an exaggeration, but still….

So what next? As Wagstyl notes, there are regional elections in March, one that many of her MPs will be watching nervously:

Around 60 of the CDU/CSU’s 311 parliamentarians could lose their seats if the recent opinion poll drop were repeated in the next [general] election in 2017.

Now that’s interesting, and so are the signs that Merkel’s Utopian bungling is damaging German influence in, to borrow a phrase, its ‘near abroad’:

The domestic pressures are also hurting Ms Merkel in the EU. Not only have eastern European leaders resisted her refugee policy, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban has even intervened in Germany. In a high-profile visit to Mr Seehofer, the man who built Hungary’s anti-refugee fences declared himself “Bavaria’s border captain”.
The reluctance to accept refugees speaks volumes. It is not just the east Europeans. The UK has declined to participate in the planned EU-wide refugee redistribution. France is making only a modest contribution.
For Mr Röttgen [the CDU head of the German parliament’s foreign affairs committee], this lack of co-operation is a setback for the EU as a whole. “The failure to show solidarity over refugees is the biggest failure of Europe so far and it will affect the stability of Europe in the future,” he says.

If stability is a synonym for trapped, then a little instability might not be such a bad thing.