Mark thinks that Kyl has the power to kill an immigration bill because the White House has given him such an elevated role. I wish this were true, but I don’t think it is. My sense is that the administration would prefer a deal with Kyl to a deal without him, because it would like to get the least possible grief from conservatives. And Mark is right to suggest that Kyl will bring some votes with him whatever he decides to do. But I don’t think the administration believes that it has to get Kyl on board to get a deal–certainly not to get one through the Senate–and I don’t think it would be correct to believe that.

Only 41 senators have to oppose the bill to kill it, as Mark notes. But opponents didn’t have 41 votes last year, and it’s hard to see where those votes would come from now. If the administration’s initiative is to die, it is going to take Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel to land the fatal blow.