Tim Shipman has written a useful article in The Spectator (paywalled) in which in the wake of Britain’s local elections, he discusses what might lie ahead for Britain’s principal political parties (a growing list). Shipman’s analysis of a dilemma facing Labour is of particular interest. He notes that the party is losing voters on two sides. Some “older patriotic working-class” voters are turning to Nigel Farage’s populist-right Reform UK, but “parts of its younger progressive metropolitan coalition” are turning to the Greens.
So what to do?
Shipman reckons that the greater threat to Labour in any general election is represented by Reform. It ought to go without saying that any predictions have to be qualified with the observation that the general election is highly unlikely to take place before 2029. Given the current febrile state of British politics, that is a long, long time away.
But what about the Greens?
Shipman:
The Greens advanced significantly in several affluent metropolitan and progressive areas and won the Hackney mayoralty — a psychologically important breakthrough. Elsewhere in London (five up in Ealing) and areas of progressive affluence they made gains (four in Southampton, three in Salford, four in Oxford). But in Richmond, one of the most heavily Jewish boroughs in outer London, they lost all 5 seats they held to the Liberal Democrats. The Greens went into election day with more than 30 candidates being investigated over anti-Semitism in an internal party probe, two London candidates arrested for ‘stirring up racial hatred online’, and Polanski [the Green leader] under sustained pressure for failing to act decisively.
Those familiar with the history of Greenery or, at least, one important strain of it, would not have been surprised by growing evidence of antisemitism within its ranks, although the journey taken by the current generation is different from that followed by their ideological predecessors a century or so ago.
In the case of parties such as Britain’s Greens or France’s LFI, the route to antisemitism has been smoothed by the camouflage offered by “antizionism”, originally a largely Soviet concoction, which has been a part of the modern left’s omnicause for a while. But it is also a matter of chilly political calculation. Growing numbers of Muslim voters, empowered in part by their own increasing numerical strength are no longer content to simply align themselves with establishment left parties, whether in France or the U.K. They want more attention paid to “their” issues, issues that stretch beyond local concerns to something broader — thus the election of “Gaza independents” to the British parliament in 2024.
In France, the hard-left LFI has seen the opportunity offered by Islamo-leftism. Britain’s Greens, already well on the left, have been moving down the same path, a journey that has accelerated under Zack Polanski, its new leader, as was evident in the recent Gorton special election. Polanski, who is himself of Jewish heritage, is a charismatic opportunist. His “eco-populism” has proved something of a winner and its “antizionism” appears, with exceptions such as those noted by Shipman, to have done the Greens no harm. The party claims that its membership has tripled since September to over 200,000, well ahead of the Tories, but behind Labour and Reform if not massively so.
So which way will Labour jump?