“The fog of war makes it impossible for me or anyone else to determine whether or not Israel’s war against Hezbollah is succeeding of failing militarily. But it’s painfully obvious that Israel’s attempt to influence Lebanese politics in its favor is an absolute catastrophe right now. The (second in a decade) attack on Qana that killed scores of civilians has all but cemented the Lebanese public and Hezbollah together. Cable news reports that 82 percent of Lebanese now support Hezbollah. Prime Minister Fouad Seniora – whatever his real opinion in private – is now closer to openly supporting Hezbollah in public than he has ever been. The March 14 Movement (the Cedar Revolution) is, at best, in a coma if not outright dead. Hezbollah was popular while Israel occupied South Lebanon. When Israel left Lebanon it finally became possible for Hezbollah’s power to be strictly relegated to it own little corner because support for the organization evaporated.Now that Israel is back, Hezbollah’s support is back. It doesn’t matter if this support is reasonable or not. (It isn’t reasonable. Israel wouldn’t even be in Lebanon if it weren’t for Hezbollah.) But it was entirely predictable.”
Indeed it was.
Totten continues:
“Support for Hezbollah will drop again after Israel leaves. But Israel can’t (or won’t) leave until some kind of arrangement is hammered out. And Israel will now have to deal with a manifestly more hostile Lebanese public while working out that arrangement. This is a disaster for Lebanon, a disaster for Israel, and a disaster for the United States. It is a tremendous boon to Syria and Iran.”
I’m afraid so.
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