John Judis, co-author of The Emerging Democratic Majority, writes, “This is going to be a close election. Obama is going to have trouble winning Ohio (with its white working class) and Virginia (with its pro-military seacoast), two states on which the campaign has counted. He may have to win Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire to take the election. . . . In my view, this election is going to depend a lot on the debates. And even with the strong Democratic tailwind behind him, Obama may need some kind of slip-up by McCain or Palin to carry the day.”

I’d just urge conservatives to keep in mind that Republicans were much more confident four years ago than they are now, and the debates eliminated the Republican candidate’s edge in the polls. Also, the state polls are not yet where McCain needs them to be. Obama doesn’t have to win New Hampshire to reach an Electoral College tie that goes to the House. And in recent polling, Colorado and New Mexico have been significantly more Obama-leaning than the national electorate. If McCain doesn’t win Colorado, can he win Michigan or Pennsylvania?