The latest ABC News/BBC/NHK poll of 2,228 Iraqis is laden with good top-line news, and the mainstream media, has, to its credit, reported much of it. Iraqis are feeling more secure, more prosperous, and more optimistic about themselves and their nation. Their allegiance to democracy is growing, and their confidence in the institutions of that democracy has surged.

The odds on George W. Bush’s grand gamble — democratic nation-building in the heart of Arabia — are not so long any more. What little comfort American self-haters can take from this new poll is a shared desire, between themselves and the Iraqis, to throw shoes.

Given all this, it is no longer necessary, as in previous posts, to highlight the consistency with which ordinary Iraqis expressed their displeasure at any armed group that killed them, including local militias, Baathist counter-revolutionaries, MNF-Iraq troops, and especially al Qaeda; nor to explain that America didn’t invade Iraq to win popularity contests there.

But several findings of the new poll deserve special attention. First among these is the amazing popularity of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who enjoys an overall approval of 61%. Elevated to power precisely because his faction, the Dawa, had no militia with which to threaten the other major power brokers, his action against the Shi’ite militias enhanced his standing among Shi’ites and Sunnis alike.

The opinion poll confirms the result of the recent provincial elections: The popularity of Islamic parties is on the wane among both Sunnis and Shi’ites. In February 2008, Shi’ites, who compose roughly 70% of the Iraqi population, preferred democracy to a theocratic Islamic state by a slender 42% to 41%. One year later, the preference for democracy over theocracy has swollen, 62%-to-26%.

U.S. popularity, while low, has risen. But at 18%, it is not noticeably different from that accorded other regional powers: 23% for Syria, 22% for Great Britain, 21% for Saudi Arabia, and 18% for Russia. One regional power, however, fares considerably worse. Only 12% of Iraqis surveyed believe that Iran plays a positive role in their nation’s fortunes.

So much for the thesis that G.W. Bush planted an Iranian satellite in the land of the two rivers.

A final idiosyncracy bears note. From February 2008 to February 2009, median income in Iraq remained stagnant, despite a general increase in the accessibility of household goods. Sunni median income declined 16%, while the Shi’ite median increased 1%. But the Kurds surveyed recorded a 48% year-to-year increase in median income. The Kurdish provinces are prospering mightily.

The survey provides a clear preview of the next crisis in Iraqi history. Oil-rich Kirkuk was the scene of major Kurdish deportations under Saddam, who shifted tens of thousands of Sunni Arabs to the region. Over nine in ten Kurds hope to see Kirkuk incorporated into the Kurdish autonomous region; by a comparable margin, Iraqi Arabs oppose its inclusion. Roughly nine in ten Iraqis expect that the Kurdish provinces will attempt to secede. Roughly nine in ten Kurds regard such a change favorably; roughly nine in ten Iraqi Arabs oppose it.

Nouri-al Maliki’s initial rise to power was facilitated, in part, by support from the Kurdish party leaders, who appreciated his work as a mediator during the framing of Iraqi Constitution. He still enjoys a 51% approval rating among Kurds. In the negotiations over Kirkuk, he will again be tested. — Richard Nadler is president of the Americas Majority Foundation, a public-policy think tank in Overland Park, Kan.