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A lot is in flux one week from November’s midterm elections, but ultimately “this race is a competition between two major countervailing forces,” Rich Lowry said on Tuesday’s Special Report: “One is the national environment, which is poisonous to Democrats, and is defined by the president’s unpopularity. The other is these individual Democrats in these states, who are relying on the power of incumbency, or maybe a good family name, and a lot of money they have to spend because of fundraising, and maybe a get-out-the-vote operation to try to eke their heads above water despite that environment.”

Who will prevail between those forces, though, is anyone’s guess. Observed Lowry: “You can name three or four races just off the top of your head that look like they could be one-point races on Election Day.”