The Corner

Lucy and the Football, in the Persian Gulf

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A drone view shows an oil tanker that sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, arriving in Iraq’s territorial waters off Basra, Iraq, April 17, 2026.

Mohammed Aty/Reuters

The White House messaging on Iran — or more specifically, the president’s — flips back and forth between two settings: bold declarations that the Iranians have capitulated, or have opened up the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian regime immediately denies; and then a threat to hit Iran much, much harder than it has been hit so far. This morning, President Trump acknowledged that the Iranians were firing on ships in the strait, which three days ago he said was “FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE.”

In light of this, it’s hard to get all that excited when the president announces some giant new Iranian concession. The Iranian regime lies, a lot, and Trump has a propensity to hear what he wants to hear.

Jim Geraghty

About the Author

Jim Geraghty

Jim Geraghty is the senior political correspondent of National Review.

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