The Trump administration is thrilled to announce that “for the first time since 1999, American steel production has surpassed Japan’s — further proof that President Trump’s trade policy is working.”

The first part of that statement is true — annual U.S. steel production in 2025 was higher than Japanese steel production for the first time in 26 years. The second part definitely is not.

President Trump and his allies want you to think that American steel output has overtaken Japan’s because it has increased, presumably because of tariffs on imported steel and steel products. But take a closer look at the data: U.S. steel production barely budged higher in 2025 and is lower than what it was as recently as 2021.

Instead, the main reason that America now makes more steel than Japan is that Japan is producing far less steel than it used to, falling from more than 100 million metric tons a decade ago to just over 80 million in 2025. The story that the Trump administration is touting is thus one of Japanese decline, not the resurgent triumph of the American steel industry thanks to the helpful (and coercive) hand of protectionist tariffs.

Finally, a reminder: Even if tariffs do increase domestic steel production, they can only do so by raising the price that other manufacturers pay for steel and that consumers ultimately pay for products containing steel. Therefore, any jobs “protected” by steel tariffs are likely to be more than offset by greater job losses in downstream industries that purchase steel. Empirical studies have confirmed that this is the case.

Sorry to rain on Trump’s parade.