The headlines say “job losses decrease” and “unemployment falls.” But these are contradictory statements since any net job losses, even if the number is smaller than the month before, imply a decrease in employment. This contradiction might be resolved due to the definition of unemployed, which might merely mean that more people have given up looking for jobs. Or else it might mean that we are getting different readings from two different surveys that often give conflicting results (remember the debate during the “jobless recovery” when unemployment was declining but payroll figures did not show an increase in employment?). Payroll says unemployment is increasing whereas the unemployment rate would seem to indicate the opposite. Most of the media trumpeted the payroll figures during the Bush years, concluding that the Bush presidency was failing to increase employment by very much. Since no serious observer actually believes that employment is now rising, the drop in the unemployment rate should be discounted by the media. It will be interesting to see if they are consistent or if they let their biases through and suggest that the employment picture is improving. Nevertheless, the numbers do indicate that employment is getting worse at a slower rate than before, which is an improvement of sorts.

— Stan Liebowitz is Ashbel Smith Professor of Economics and director of the Center for the Analysis of Property Rights and Innovation at the School of Management at the University of Texas–Dallas