It’s fair to say that, since the United States unleashed the power of the atom bomb in 1945, the nuclear deterrent has become the only real guarantor of a state’s security. Neither powerful allies nor an idealistic international community, as we’ve seen throughout Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, truly stack up to the potential threat of nuclear reprisals. So it makes perfect sense that Saudi Arabia is looking for ways to maintain the balance of power in its region should Iran finally develop ready-to-use nuclear weapons.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview this week with Fox News’ Bret Baier that, if the Islamic Republic does test a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia would “have to get one, for security reasons, for balancing power.” Of course the Saudis are concerned about an Iran that has sought to export its revolution across the Middle East since the ayatollahs took power in 1979, and of course a nuclear program is the only serious counterweight to Iran’s ambitions.
Nuclear proliferation is generally a frightening concept no matter which state develops the technology; it’s intuitive that a weapon with the power to destroy civilization would spark anxiety. But a nuclear Saudi Arabia — though all but inevitable were the Islamic Republic to achieve that capability — is another beast entirely. Yes, the Saudis are a natural confederate for the U.S. in terms of offsetting the Iranian threat and maintaining the balance of power in the region, but, as Mark Antonio Wright has written, they are no saints themselves, and our 40-year strategic partnership with the kingdom has not been smooth sailing, to say the least:
During every one of those years, the Saudi dictatorship has played us fast and loose. It has never been aligned with our values or our interests. It has tolerated and indirectly funded our radical-jihadist enemies to shore itself up domestically. It has brutalized and terrorized its people, especially its women and religious minorities. It has used its oil reserves as a weapon against us and has participated in and led a cartel that has placed the United States under an oil embargo, causing tremendous economic damage.
This is the same Saudi Arabia whose royal family may have played a role in supporting al-Qaeda — though it’s important to note that has not been proven — and the same Saudi Arabia that dismembered Jamal Khashoggi and, among other human-rights violations, sentenced Mohammed al-Ghamdi, a Saudi citizen, to death for posting on his eight-follower X (formerly Twitter) account that the king and crown prince are “tyrants.” This is not a country we should want to have nuclear weapons, but if Iran gets them, there won’t really be a choice.
So then let’s prevent Iran from developing functional atomic bombs. A return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the Iran Nuclear Deal — won’t work. The Islamic Republic did not fully comply with the terms of that agreement, and last week, Tehran severely restricted the International Atomic Energy Agency’s ability to inspect its nuclear facilities, meaning there is no way of knowing whether it would adhere to the constraints imposed by a new deal. As John Yoo wrote in National Review last year, Iran cannot be trusted to respect a revived nuclear agreement:
The JCPOA did not deter Iran from further pursuing its designs to disrupt the Middle East, but only emboldened and enriched the rogue regime. Former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu provided evidence, in documents taken from a warehouse in Iran, of Iran’s extensive research of nuclear-weapons development and production — in defiance of the JCPOA. The evidence also showed that even after the JCPOA ratification, Iran stored its research findings on nuclear-weapon developments for future use.
Clearly, the Biden administration’s aim to enter a new pact with the Islamic Republic won’t end the way the White House would hope. And if the U.S. cannot successfully prevent Iran from obtaining weapons of mass destruction, a nuclear Saudi Arabia is surely on the horizon. If diplomacy isn’t going to work — and it sure looks like it won’t — Biden may need to look toward other measures. The question remains, though, as to whether he has the will to do so.