From a reader:

Jonah – There is a remarkably consistent — and, it seems to me, potentially telling — trend in the Rasmussen state by state polls that I keep noticing but that no one ever seems to talk about, so here goes: McCain almost always does better (and often much better) vs. Obama on “favorability” ratings than he does vs. Obama in the “who do you intend to vote for” question. For example, in PA, Obama leads McCain by 5 (3 with leaners), but McCain leads Obama 58-55 in favorability ratings. In OH, McCain leads by 4 (5 with leaners) but by 15 in favorability ratings. Same in Virginia (McCain -1 or +1 depending on leaners, McCain +10 fav), MI, NM, WI and on and on. This suggests to me that either (a) a significant number of people who have a more favorable opinion of McCain than Obama nonetheless intend to vote for Obama or (b) a highly disproportionate number of “undecideds” (and maybe even some Obama “leaners”) are actually inclined towards McCain over Obama. While possible, the former seems unlikely. History suggests that people tend to vote for the presidential candidate they have a more favorable “gut” impression of, for whatever reason. The latter seems like a much more obvious explanation. If my (admittedly amateur) analysis is correct, one of two things will happen between now and election day. Obama will close the “favorability gap” in key states as more people begin to focus on the election, or McCain will outperform his poll numbers and win the electoral vote fairly easily, winning states that appear to be very close (e.g., VA or OH) by a comfortable margin and pulling of “unexpected” victories in some blue states like PA or MI that he now appears to be losing. Again, at least as it looks today, the latter seems more likely. The fact that the national Rasmussen numbers don’t really show this disconnect between polling numbers and favorability ratings suggests that the gap is appearing more in the contested swing states (Virginia, PA, MI, etc), where most of the ad dollars and candidate efforts are presumably being spent, than nationally. This further implies that the more exposure the voters get to the candidates and issues and campaign messages — which will happen more broadly as we get closer to the election — the more likely they are to view McCain favorably in comparison to Obama. Alot can change between now and Nov 4. Shoes can drop, candidates can flub or excel in the debates, etc. But this suggests that — as things stand today — this is McCain’s election to lose, and that the evidence of a likely McCain victory might just be hiding in plain sight. I am curious if any Corner contributors (or readers) more expert on polls than I has any thoughts on that . . .

Update: A party activist responds:

Jonah, There are several things to keep in mind when looking at poll numbers in this election: 1) Polls do not account for the Bradley effect (voters falsely telling pollsters that they will vote for the black candidate and then voting for the Republican). I believe that the favorability ratings disparity your emailer noticed was a testimony of that. We saw the Bradley effect many times in the primaries, with Hillary often significantly getting more votes than the polls (even the exit polls!) showed. New Hampshire was the best example, as Susan Estrich reminded us today. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/whats_in_a_poll.html . From what I saw in the primaries, we can expect to see a pronounced Bradley effect in states where the electorate is white collar and socially liberal (white guilt). Hence, I would expect McCain to overperform his polling significantly in the key states of Colorado and New Hampshire, while I don’t believe that we could see any such thing in the South (where it is more socially acceptable to oppose Obama). 2) Many polls are reporting “undecided” black voters, and I don’t believe these really exist. They will go for Obama. Black turnout will also be extremely high, which is why I worry about Virginia. 3) Polls do not account for Obama’s advantage in the ground game. Obama has a huge advantage in volunteers, and his superior organization will likely result in better GOTV efforts in key states. What does all this add up to? I think (1) is significantly stronger than (2) and (3). My guess (and that’s all anyone can do, really) is that the Bradley effect is about 4 points nationwide and Obama will make up about half of that in swing states with (2) and (3). With increasing tension with Russia and the McCain team picking up steam, I think now is a good time to buy Johnny Mac on Intrade. I think that McCain is now the favorite.